Fri, Sep 6, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
PHI -1.5
✓ PHI W
Total
49.5
▲ Over · 63 pts
Model before kickoff
GB 23–25 PHI
✓ PHI (55%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPHI -2
ClosePHI -1.5
Total48.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPHI -2
0.5 → GB
ClosePHI -1.5
0.5 pts toward Green Bay Packers
Total
Open48.5
▲ 1
Close49.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PHI -2 · closed PHI -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward GBmodel GB -0.5
model GB -0.5
Opened 48.5 · closed 49.5 · moved 1 upmodel 48.5
model 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPHI -2
ClosePHI -1.5
Total48.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 1 games most like 
PHI as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against GB, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.
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This game: PHI won 34–29; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 63 points went over 49.5, as in 0 of 1.
Favorite won
0 of 10%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
0 of 10%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
0 of 10%
Normal range · usually 42%
Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 7 against an average line of 1; 35 points a game (usually 43). When games like this go over ›
All 1 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation |
-1 | 14–21 | L | U51 |
MIA
KCHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Green Bay Packers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 24 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| PHI | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
GB 7–11 PHI
PHI leads · 18 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last 4 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
62° · 9 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
GB1st game
PHI1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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CHI
MIN @ 
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DAL @ 
CLE
WSH @ 
TB
LAR @ 
DET
BAL @ 
PIT @ 
ATL
ARI @ 
BUF
NE @ 
CIN
HOU @ 
IND