Thu, Sep 5, 2024, 8:40 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Kansas City Chiefs
Closing spread
KC -2.5
✓ KC W
Total
45.5
▲ Over · 47 pts
Model before kickoff
BAL 22–24 KC
✓ KC (58%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKC -3
CloseKC -2.5
Total46.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKC -3
0.5 → BAL
CloseKC -2.5
0.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens
Total
Open46.5
▼ 1
Close45.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KC -3 · closed KC -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward BALmodel KC -1
model KC -1
Opened 46.5 · closed 45.5 · moved 1 downmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (64 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKC -3
CloseKC -2.5
Total46.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
KC as a 2.5-point home favorite against BAL, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: KC won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 58%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 2.4; 55.8 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  LAC vs  CLE2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 47–42 | W | O47 |
| Loose |  TB vs KC2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 31–41 | L | O47.5 |
| Loose | TB vs  BAL2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 22–27 | L | O46.5 |
| Loose |  ARI vs  NO2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 42–34 | W | O44 |
| Loose |  NE vs CLE2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 45–7 | W | O44.5 |
| Loose |  DEN vs BAL2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-1 | 7–23 | L | U44 |
| Loose |  MIA vs NE2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 20–7 | W | U46.5 |
| Loose | CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 15–38 | L | O43.5 |
| Loose | BAL vs MIA 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 38–42 | L | O43.5 |
| Loose |  MIN vs  GB2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-2.5 | 23–7 | W | U46.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Baltimore Ravens have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 15% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-4-1 56% |
| KC | 7-3 70% | 6-3-1 67% | 3-6-1 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
BAL 5–10 KC
KC leads · 15 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 10 | BAL -4.5 | KC W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
KC +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 3 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BAL1st game
KC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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