Bengals @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff85°F7 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

0-1 · Power #14

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

1-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -6.5

✓ CIN W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 19–26 KC

✓ KC (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -6.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -3.5

3 → KC

CloseKC -6.5

3 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -3.5 · closed KC -6.5 · moved 3 toward KCmodel KC -5.5

model KC -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -6.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 6.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 26–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 6.8; 45.1 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI vs GB 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings	-6.5	40–33	W	O46
Loose	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Loose	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Loose	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & rest	-7	26–14	W	U46
Loose	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · loose	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Loose	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Loose	NO vs ATL 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-7	25–27	L	O43
Loose	CLE vs CHI 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	26–6	W	U44.5
Loose	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Loose	CIN vs LV 2021 · Postseason · loose	-6	26–19	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN L	0-1	0%	—	—
KC W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN U	0-1	0%	0-1
KC O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 41 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	7-3 70%
KC	8-2 80%	7-2-1 78%	3-6-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 9–6 KC CIN leads · 15 games since 2003 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 25	KC -7.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−1.1▼ 0.9#22

KC+2.2 →+2.2–#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CIN

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

KC better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ CIN better

#23

−2.0 #27

Turnovers

KC better ▶

0.0 #12

48 plays #31

Pace

KC faster ▶

50 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #30	20.0 #12	KC
Yards / play	4.67 #21	6.11 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.18 #24	+0.08 #22	Even
Success rate	42% #20	54% #31	CIN

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #11	16.0 #6	CIN
Yards / play	7.06 #2	4.53 #10	KC
EPA / play	+0.21 #3	−0.01 #16	KC
Success rate	45% #12	44% #20	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.