Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Denver Broncos
Weather at kickoff86°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #12
13
▲ winner
Final
@
0-1 · Power #15
6
final
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
PIT 24–22 DEN
✓ PIT (57%) won
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Pittsburgh Steelers has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
PIT−0.4 →+0.4▲ 0.8#13
DEN−1.0 →−1.5▼ 0.5#26
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

PIT
Longer bar = better
DEN
#23
Offense
◀ PIT better
#27
#8
Defense
◀ PIT better
#16
+3.0 #1
Turnovers
◀ PIT better
−1.0 #23
66 plays #10
Pace
Even
69 plays #8
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When PIT has the ball
Advantage: DEN defense
PIT offDEN defEdge
Points / game 18.0 #22 26.0 #20 Even
Yards / play 4.09 #26 5.07 #14 DEN
EPA / play −0.10 #20 −0.08 #14 DEN
Success rate 39% #22 43% #17 DEN
When DEN has the ball
Advantage: PIT defense
DEN offPIT defEdge
Points / game 20.0 #19 10.0 #3 PIT
Yards / play 3.35 #30 4.52 #9 PIT
EPA / play −0.31 #28 −0.35 #3 PIT
Success rate 28% #31 43% #16 PIT

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
DEN +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 5 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
PIT7d
DEN7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 135 plays
slowavg 120fast
Travel
PIT 1,318 mi
2 time zones