Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Denver Broncos
Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model before kickoff
PIT 24–22 DEN
✓ PIT (57%) won
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
Close—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Pittsburgh Steelers has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | |
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
PIT 6–7 DEN
DEN leads · 13 games since 2003 · PIT has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
PIT−0.4 →+0.4▲ 0.8#13
DEN−1.0 →−1.5▼ 0.5#26
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#23
Offense
◀ PIT better#27
#8
Defense
◀ PIT better#16
+3.0 #1
Turnovers
◀ PIT better−1.0 #23
66 plays #10
Pace
Even69 plays #8
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| PIT off | DEN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 18.0 #22 | 26.0 #20 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.09 #26 | 5.07 #14 | DEN |
| EPA / play | −0.10 #20 | −0.08 #14 | DEN |
| Success rate | 39% #22 | 43% #17 | DEN |
| DEN off | PIT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.0 #19 | 10.0 #3 | PIT |
| Yards / play | 3.35 #30 | 4.52 #9 | PIT |
| EPA / play | −0.31 #28 | −0.35 #3 | PIT |
| Success rate | 28% #31 | 43% #16 | PIT |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 5 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
PIT7d
DEN7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 135 plays
slowavg 120fast
Travel
PIT 1,318 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

