Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Pittsburgh Steelers
Closing spread
PIT -2.5
✓ PIT W
Total
35.5
▼ Under · 30 pts
Model before kickoff
LAC 20–23 PIT
✓ PIT (58%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPIT -2.5
ClosePIT -2.5
Total36.5 → 35.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPIT -2.5
no move
ClosePIT -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open36.5
▼ 1
Close35.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PIT -2.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em
model Pick’em
Opened 36.5 · closed 35.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43
model 43
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (76 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPIT -2.5
ClosePIT -2.5
Total36.5 → 35.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
PIT as a 2.5-point home favorite against LAC. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Los Angeles Chargers ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Los Angeles Chargers on a cross-country trip
Los Angeles Chargers cross 3 time zones (2,139 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Pittsburgh Steelers has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 41% of games with totals 32.5–38.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | |
| 6-4 60% | 5-4 56% | 5-4 56% |
Recent meetings
The series
LAC 5–9 PIT
PIT leads · 14 games since 2000 · LAC has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
LAC−0.7 →+1.5▲ 2.2#8
PIT−0.4 →+0.7▲ 1.1#12
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2
Longer bar = better
#14
Offense
◀ LAC better#26
#2
Defense
◀ LAC better#7
+1.0 #7
Turnovers
PIT better ▶+2.5 #1
60 plays #19
Pace
PIT faster ▶62 plays #14
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| LAC off | PIT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.0 #12 | 8.0 #2 | PIT |
| Yards / play | 5.59 #15 | 4.92 #13 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.02 #12 | −0.29 #3 | PIT |
| Success rate | 46% #15 | 38% #8 | PIT |
| PIT off | LAC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 15.5 #25 | 6.5 #1 | LAC |
| Yards / play | 4.20 #28 | 4.33 #3 | LAC |
| EPA / play | −0.11 #23 | −0.40 #1 | LAC |
| Success rate | 35% #29 | 29% #1 | LAC |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams
LAC scoring against the PIT defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.5 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | |
1.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
PIT scoring against the LAC defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.0 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | |
3.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 4 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LAC7d
PIT7d
Even
Tempo
Average 122 plays
slowavg 121fast
Travel
LAC 2,139 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

