Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Pittsburgh Steelers
Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›
2-0 · Power #13
10
final
Final
@
2-0 · Power #12
20
▲ winner
Closing spread
PIT -2.5
✓ PIT W
Total
35.5
▼ Under · 30 pts
Model before kickoff
LAC 20–23 PIT
✓ PIT (58%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPIT -2.5
ClosePIT -2.5
Total36.5 → 35.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PIT -2.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em
Opened 36.5 · closed 35.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (76 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPIT -2.5
ClosePIT -2.5
Total36.5 → 35.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for PIT as a 2.5-point home favorite against LAC. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Los Angeles Chargers ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Los Angeles Chargers on a cross-country trip
Los Angeles Chargers cross 3 time zones (2,139 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Pittsburgh Steelers has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
LAC−0.7 →+1.5▲ 2.2#8
PIT−0.4 →+0.7▲ 1.1#12
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LAC
Longer bar = better
PIT
#14
Offense
◀ LAC better
#26
#2
Defense
◀ LAC better
#7
+1.0 #7
Turnovers
PIT better ▶
+2.5 #1
60 plays #19
Pace
PIT faster ▶
62 plays #14
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When LAC has the ball
Advantage: PIT defense
LAC offPIT defEdge
Points / game 24.0 #12 8.0 #2 PIT
Yards / play 5.59 #15 4.92 #13 Even
EPA / play +0.02 #12 −0.29 #3 PIT
Success rate 46% #15 38% #8 PIT
When PIT has the ball
Advantage: LAC defense
PIT offLAC defEdge
Points / game 15.5 #25 6.5 #1 LAC
Yards / play 4.20 #28 4.33 #3 LAC
EPA / play −0.11 #23 −0.40 #1 LAC
Success rate 35% #29 29% #1 LAC

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams
LAC scoring against the PIT defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
LAC scored
4.5
8.5
13.0
3.0
8.0
11.0
PIT allowed
1.5
3.5
5.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
PIT scoring against the LAC defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
PIT scored
5.0
4.5
9.5
4.5
1.5
6.0
LAC allowed
3.5
0.0
3.5
1.5
1.5
3.0

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
PIT +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 4 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LAC7d
PIT7d
Even
Tempo
Average 122 plays
slowavg 121fast
Travel
LAC 2,139 mi
3 time zones