Giants @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff80°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

New York Giants

0-2 · Power #31

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

1-1 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

✓ NYG W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 19–25 CLE

✗ CLE (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLE -7

CloseCLE -6.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLE -7

0.5 → NYG

CloseCLE -6.5

0.5 pts toward New York Giants

Total

Open38.5

▼ 1

Close37.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLE -7 · closed CLE -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward NYGmodel CLE -6.5 matches the line

model CLE -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 48% (46 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLE -7

CloseCLE -6.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 6.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 21–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 37.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 6.7; 42.3 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	CLE vs NYJ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	30–31	L	O39.5
Loose	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	29–27	L	O40
Loose	WSH vs NYG 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	19–31	L	O39
Loose	NO vs CAR 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	28–6	W	U38.5
Loose	PIT vs DET 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings	-6	16–16	L	U40.5
Loose	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-6	10–24	L	U41
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	NYG vs IND 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	38–10	W	O38.5
Loose	CHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	29–3	W	U36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
CLE LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UU	0-2	0%	0-2
CLE OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 51% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CLE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 5–2 CLE NYG leads · 7 games since 2000 · NYG has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−2.2 →−3.8▼ 1.6#31

CLE+1.1 →+0.1▼ 1.0#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NYG

Longer bar = better

CLE

#28

Offense

Even

#26

#27

Defense

CLE better ▶

#14

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #26

60 plays #20

Pace

CLE faster ▶

68 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	NYG off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #31	23.0 #23	CLE
Yards / play	4.57 #25	5.11 #15	CLE
EPA / play	−0.16 #27	−0.07 #12	CLE
Success rate	36% #27	38% #7	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #21	24.5 #26	CLE
Yards / play	3.90 #30	6.14 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #24	+0.16 #28	Even
Success rate	33% #30	46% #25	NYG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

NYG scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	4.5	3.0	7.5	1.5	3.0	4.5
CLE allowed	3.5	8.0	11.5	8.5	3.0	11.5

CLE scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	5.0	3.0	8.0	5.0	4.5	9.5
NYG allowed	5.0	6.5	11.5	10.0	3.0	13.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.