Browns @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

1-2 · Power #28

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

1-2 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ LV W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 24–21 LV

✗ CLE (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLE -0.5

CloseCLE -2.5

Total37.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLE -0.5

2 → CLE

CloseCLE -2.5

2 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open37.5

▲ 1

Close38.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLE -0.5 · closed CLE -2.5 · moved 2 toward CLEmodel CLE -2

model CLE -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 47% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLE -0.5

CloseCLE -2.5

Total37.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 20–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 38.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 2.4; 40.6 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TEN @ WSH 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	21–17	W	U43
Loose	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Loose	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Loose	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-3	23–10	W	U41
Loose	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Loose	CHI @ DET 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-3	16–14	L	U41.5
Loose	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Loose	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Loose	LV @ CHI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	12–30	L	O37.5
Loose	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2
LV LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
LV UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LV	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 7–8 LV LV leads · 15 games since 2000 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−1.0▼ 2.1#20

LV−0.8 →−2.7▼ 1.9#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CLE

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

LV better ▶

#22

#15

Defense

◀ CLE better

#26

−0.7 #26

Turnovers

◀ CLE better

−1.3 #30

66 plays #6

Pace

◀ CLE faster

59 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #25	27.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	3.76 #31	6.07 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.21 #29	+0.05 #24	LV
Success rate	34% #32	45% #21	LV

When LV has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	LV off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #18	22.3 #20	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #22	5.04 #12	CLE
EPA / play	−0.19 #27	−0.03 #13	CLE
Success rate	40% #21	40% #14	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	5.7 #11	2.0 #31	7.7 #26	3.3 #23	5.7 #13	9.0 #20
LV allowed	4.3 #14	7.7 #20	12.0 #19	5.3 #20	9.7 #30	15.0 #29

LV scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.7 #16	2.0 #31	6.7 #29	2.3 #28	10.3 #1	12.7 #9
CLE allowed	4.7 #16	10.0 #29	14.7 #28	5.7 #22	2.0 #1	7.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.