Rams @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff66°F16 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

1-2 · Power #16

final

Final

Chicago Bears

1-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

✓ CHI W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 20–23 CHI

✓ CHI (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -1.5

2 → CHI

CloseCHI -3.5

2 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -1.5 · closed CHI -3.5 · moved 2 toward CHImodel LAR -2

model LAR -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (82 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CHI won 24–18; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points went over 40.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 3; 35.6 points a game (usually 43.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	JAX vs CLE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	13–18	L	U41.5
Loose	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Loose	DEN vs IND 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form	-3	9–12	L	U42
Loose	NYG vs DAL 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	16–23	L	O38.5
Loose	DEN vs LAC 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	16–9	W	U39
Loose	CHI vs ARI 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–16	W	O42
Loose	CAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	16–26	L	U44
Loose	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	1-2
CHI WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
CHI UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
CHI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 8–7 CHI LAR leads · 15 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.7 →−1.3▼ 2.0#24

CHI−0.3 →−1.1▼ 0.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

LAR

Longer bar = better

CHI

#16

Offense

◀ LAR better

#29

#31

Defense

CHI better ▶

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

0.0 #19

60 plays #17

Pace

CHI faster ▶

68 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	LAR off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #20	19.0 #10	CHI
Yards / play	5.13 #18	4.89 #11	CHI
EPA / play	−0.02 #15	−0.21 #4	CHI
Success rate	45% #12	36% #3	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #22	30.3 #31	CHI
Yards / play	3.68 #32	6.79 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.25 #32	+0.22 #31	Even
Success rate	35% #31	51% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.0 #30	3.3 #27	4.3 #31	7.0 #5	7.7 #5	14.7 #2
CHI allowed	3.3 #8	10.0 #29	13.3 #23	2.3 #5	3.3 #8	5.7 #4

CHI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.0 #30	3.3 #27	4.3 #31	3.3 #21	10.0 #2	13.3 #7
LAR allowed	9.3 #30	6.7 #20	16.0 #28	8.0 #30	4.3 #15	12.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.