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NFL · 2024

NFL Week 4 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 4: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
16 finalFavorites 5-11 ATS7 upsetsO/U 10-6Model Favorite 9-7Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1616 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS5-1131% covered
Upsets7outright
Over / Under10-663% over
Model Favorite9-756% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up10 all 10 final
Over5 50%Under5 50%
Moved down4 all 4 final
Over4 100%Under0 0%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20242024–2026
Any move
3–827%
99–11446%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
3–260%
46–5048%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
0–10%
17–1455%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
—
6–275%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
0–10%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Sep 26

1
Final · Division
Dallas Cowboys
1-2 · #22
20
New York Giants
1-2 · #31
15
Spread
DAL -5.5
✓ NYG W ATS
Total
44.5
▼ Under 35
Projected
27–21
✓ DAL won
Model: NYG by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 3.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Sunday, Sep 29

13
Final · Division
New Orleans Saints
2-1 · #25
24
Atlanta Falcons
1-2 · #20
26
Spread
ATL -2.5
✓ NO W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼1
▲ Over 50 · Q4
Projected
22–24
✓ ATL won
Trend: ATL ATS ✗ Model: NO by 4 ✓ Model: Over 4.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Los Angeles Rams
1-2 · #16
18
Chicago Bears
1-2 · #24
24
Spread
CHI -3.5
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
40.5
▲ Over 42 · Q4
Projected
20–23
✓ CHI won
Trend: CHI ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: LAR by 5.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Division
Minnesota Vikings
3-0 · #8
31
Green Bay Packers
2-1 · #5
29
Spread
GB -2.5
✓ MIN W ATS
Total
44.5 ▲2
▲ Over 60 · Q4
Projected
21–23
✗ GB lost
Trend: MIN ATS ✓ Model: GB by 1 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Pittsburgh Steelers
3-0 · #12
24
Indianapolis Colts
1-2 · #21
27
Spread
PIT -2.5
✓ IND W ATS
Total
40.5 ▲1
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
23–21
✗ PIT lost
Trend: PIT ATS ✗ Model: IND by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 4 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Denver Broncos
1-2 · #15
10
New York Jets
2-1 · #23
9
Spread
NYJ -8.5
✓ DEN W ATS
Total
39.5 ▲1
▼ Under 19
Projected
17–25
✗ NYJ lost
Trend: NYJ ATS ✗ Model: DEN by 6 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Philadelphia Eagles
2-1 · #2
16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2-1 · #7
33
Spread
PHI -0.5
✓ TB W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼3
▲ Over 49 · Q3
Projected
24–23
✗ PHI lost
Trend: TB ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: PHI by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 4 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Cincinnati Bengals
0-3 · #14
34
Carolina Panthers
1-2 · #32
24
Spread
CIN -5.5
✓ CIN W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲3
▲ Over 58 · Q3
Projected
26–20
✓ CIN won
Trend: Over ✓ Model: CAR by 0.5 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Jacksonville Jaguars
0-3 · #29
20
Houston Texans
2-1 · #11
24
Spread
HOU -5.5
✓ JAX W ATS
Total
46.5 ▲1
▼ Under 44
Projected
21–26
✓ HOU won
Model: JAX by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Washington Commanders
2-1 · #10
42
Arizona Cardinals
1-2 · #17
14
Spread
ARI -3.5
✓ WSH W ATS
Total
48.5 ▼1
▲ Over 56 · Q4
Projected
24–27
✗ ARI lost
Trend: WSH ATS ✓ Model: WSH by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
New England Patriots
1-2 · #30
13
San Francisco 49ers
1-2 · #9
30
Spread
SF -10.5
✓ SF W ATS
Total
41.5 ▲1
▲ Over 43 · Q4
Projected
17–28
✓ SF won
Trend: NE ATS ✗ Model: NE by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 3.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Cleveland Browns
1-2 · #28
16
Las Vegas Raiders
1-2 · #27
20
Spread
CLE -2.5
✓ LV W ATS
Total
38.5 ▲1
▼ Under 36
Projected
24–21
✗ CLE lost
Trend: CLE ATS ✗ Model: LV by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 6.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Division
Kansas City Chiefs
3-0 · #6
17
Los Angeles Chargers
2-1 · #13
10
Spread
KC -7.5
✓ LAC W ATS
Total
41.5 ▲2
▼ Under 27
Projected
24–17
✓ KC won
Model: LAC by 6 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Buffalo Bills
3-0 · #4
10
Baltimore Ravens
1-2 · #1
35
Spread
BAL -2.5
✓ BAL W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲2
▼ Under 45
Projected
23–25
✓ BAL won
Trend: Over ✗ Model: BUF by 3 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Monday, Sep 30

2
Final · Non-conf
Tennessee Titans
0-3 · #26
31
Miami Dolphins
1-2 · #18
12
Spread
MIA -2.5
✓ TEN W ATS
Total
37.5 ▲1
▲ Over 43 · Q4
Projected
21–24
✗ MIA lost
Trend: MIA ATS ✗ Model: MIA by 4 ✗ Model: Over 8 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Seattle Seahawks
3-0 · #19
29
Detroit Lions
2-1 · #3
42
Spread
DET -4.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
47.5 ▼1
▲ Over 71 · Q3
Projected
22–26
✓ DET won
Trend: SEA ATS ✗ Model: SEA by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total