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NFL · 2024

NFL Week 11 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 11: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
14 finalFavorites 9-5 ATS4 upsetsO/U 8-6Model Favorite 10-4Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1414 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS9-564% covered
Upsets4outright
Over / Under8-657% over
Model Favorite10-471% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up4 all 4 final
Over2 50%Under2 50%
Moved down4 all 4 final
Over3 75%Under1 25%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20242024–2026
Any move
4–640%
99–11446%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
1–233%
46–5048%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
0–10%
17–1455%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
—
6–275%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
0–10%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Nov 14

1
Final · Division
Washington Commanders
7-3 · #10
18
Philadelphia Eagles
7-2 · #2
26
Spread
PHI -4.5
✓ PHI W ATS
Total
49.5
▼ Under 44
Projected
22–26
✓ PHI won
Trend: WSH ATS ✗ Model: WSH by 0 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4

Sunday, Nov 17

12
Final · Division
Green Bay Packers
6-3 · #5
20
Chicago Bears
4-5 · #24
19
Spread
GB -6.5
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
41.5
▼ Under 39
Projected
25–19
✓ GB won
Trend: CHI ATS ✓ Model: CHI by 1 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-8 · #29
6
Detroit Lions
8-1 · #3
52
Spread
DET -14.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
47.5
▲ Over 58 · Q3
Projected
17–31
✓ DET won
Trend: DET ATS ✓ Model: DET by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Minnesota Vikings
7-2 · #8
23
Tennessee Titans
2-7 · #26
13
Spread
MIN -5.5
✓ MIN W ATS
Total
40.5
▼ Under 36
Projected
24–19
✓ MIN won
Trend: MIN ATS ✓ Model: TEN by 1 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Las Vegas Raiders
2-7 · #27
19
Miami Dolphins
3-6 · #18
34
Spread
MIA -8.5
✓ MIA W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼2
▲ Over 53 · Q4
Projected
18–26
✓ MIA won
Trend: LV ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: LV by 6 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Los Angeles Rams
4-5 · #16
28
New England Patriots
3-7 · #30
22
Spread
LAR -4.5
✓ LAR W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼1
▲ Over 50 · Q4
Projected
23–19
✓ LAR won
Trend: NE ATS ✗ Model: NE by 0 ✗ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Cleveland Browns
2-7 · #28
14
New Orleans Saints
3-7 · #25
35
Spread
CLE -1.5
✓ NO W ATS
Total
43.5
▲ Over 49 · Q4
Projected
23–22
✗ CLE lost
Model: NO by 2 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Indianapolis Colts
4-6 · #21
28
New York Jets
3-7 · #23
27
Spread
NYJ -4.5
✓ IND W ATS
Total
43.5
▲ Over 55 · Q4
Projected
21–25
✗ NYJ lost
Trend: IND ATS ✓ Model: IND by 2 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Baltimore Ravens
7-3 · #1
16
Pittsburgh Steelers
7-2 · #12
18
Spread
BAL -3.5
✓ PIT W ATS
Total
49.5 ▲2
▼ Under 34
Projected
27–23
✗ BAL lost
Trend: PIT ATS ✓Trend: Over ✗ Model: PIT by 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Atlanta Falcons
6-4 · #20
6
Denver Broncos
5-5 · #15
38
Spread
DEN -1.5
✓ DEN W ATS
Total
44.5 ▲1
▼ Under 44
Projected
22–23
✓ DEN won
Trend: DEN ATS ✓ Model: ATL by 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Seattle Seahawks
4-5 · #19
20
San Francisco 49ers
5-4 · #9
17
Spread
SF -6.5
✓ SEA W ATS
Total
48.5 ▼1
▼ Under 37
Projected
22–29
✗ SF lost
Trend: SF ATS ✗ Model: SF by 3 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Kansas City Chiefs
9-0 · #6
21
Buffalo Bills
8-2 · #4
30
Spread
BUF -2.5
✓ BUF W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲1
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
21–24
✓ BUF won
Model: KC by 0.5 ✗ Model: Under 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Cincinnati Bengals
4-6 · #14
27
Los Angeles Chargers
6-3 · #13
34
Spread
LAC -0.5
✓ LAC W ATS
Total
48.5 ▲3
▲ Over 61 · Q4
Projected
23–24
✓ LAC won
Trend: Over ✓ Model: LAC by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Monday, Nov 18

1
Final · Non-conf
Houston Texans
6-4 · #11
34
Dallas Cowboys
3-6 · #22
10
Spread
HOU -7.5
✓ HOU W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼1
▲ Over 44 · Q4
Projected
27–21
✓ HOU won
Trend: HOU ATS ✓ Model: DAL by 7.5 ✗ Model: Over 6.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
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StatusMatchupSpreadMoveTotalModelSignalDetails
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total