Ravens @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff51°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

7-3 · Power #1

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

✓ PIT W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 27–23 PIT

✗ BAL (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3

CloseBAL -3.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -3

0.5 → BAL

CloseBAL -3.5

0.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -3 · closed BAL -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward BALmodel BAL -3

model BAL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 58% (69 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3

CloseBAL -3.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 18–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 4.1; 52.9 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	SF @ TB 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U50.5
Loose	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & situation	-4	31–34	L	O50.5
Loose	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Loose	TB @ NO 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	27–36	L	O48.5
Loose	DET @ ARI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	20–13	W	U51.5
Loose	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LWLWL	5-5	50%	3-2	5-4
PIT LWWWW	6-2	75%	3-1	3-0

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOOOO	9-1	90%	7-3
PIT UOOOO	5-3	63%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 50% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
PIT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAL 26–33 PIT PIT leads · 59 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 6 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 10	PIT -3	PIT W
Oct 8 2023	Baltimore Ravens 10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+4.9▲ 1.8#1

PIT−0.4 →+2.4▲ 2.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BAL

Longer bar = better

PIT

Offense

◀ BAL better

#17

#22

Defense

PIT better ▶

+0.4 #11

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.0 #2

62 plays #17

Pace

PIT faster ▶

64 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #1	16.2 #2	Even
Yards / play	7.09 #1	5.13 #10	BAL
EPA / play	+0.24 #1	−0.08 #7	BAL
Success rate	51% #1	42% #11	BAL

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #12	25.3 #25	PIT
Yards / play	5.06 #21	5.70 #27	PIT
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	+0.05 #25	PIT
Success rate	41% #20	42% #12	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.8 #14	10.2 #3	15.0 #4	8.3 #2	8.2 #6	16.5 #1
PIT allowed	5.7 #28	4.4 #3	10.1 #10	1.1 #1	5.0 #12	6.1 #1

PIT scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.6 #21	5.3 #23	8.9 #24	6.7 #7	8.3 #4	15.0 #3
BAL allowed	3.6 #8	5.9 #10	9.5 #7	5.2 #18	10.6 #32	15.8 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.