Rams @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

4-5 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

3-7 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

LAR -4.5

✓ LAR W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 23–19 NE

✓ LAR (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -5.5

CloseLAR -4.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -5.5

1 → NE

CloseLAR -4.5

1 pt toward New England Patriots

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -5.5 · closed LAR -4.5 · moved 1 toward NEmodel LAR -4.5 matches the line

model LAR -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -5.5

CloseLAR -4.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 4.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 28–22; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 4.9; 38.2 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	LAC @ IND 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	20–3	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR LLWWL	3-6	33%	1-3	1-2
NE LLWWW	5-5	50%	2-2	5-5

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UUOUU	4-5	44%	4-5
NE OOOUU	5-5	50%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 92 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 3–6 NE NE leads · 9 games since 2001 · LAR has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.7 →−0.6▼ 1.3#18

NE−1.8 →−4.2▼ 2.4#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

LAR

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

◀ LAR better

#28

#22

Defense

NE better ▶

#17

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−0.4 #22

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ LAR faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #20	22.0 #13	NE
Yards / play	5.20 #18	5.40 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #21	+0.03 #22	Even
Success rate	46% #10	44% #18	LAR

When NE has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	NE off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #31	24.1 #22	LAR
Yards / play	4.51 #30	5.66 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.11 #26	0.00 #18	LAR
Success rate	40% #24	44% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.4 #30	6.2 #21	7.7 #28	5.2 #12	7.0 #10	12.2 #12
NE allowed	5.0 #23	6.3 #15	11.3 #18	4.9 #15	5.2 #16	10.1 #15

NE scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.1 #25	4.5 #26	7.6 #30	3.4 #22	5.0 #22	8.4 #26
LAR allowed	6.2 #30	6.1 #11	12.3 #23	6.4 #28	4.7 #7	11.1 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.