Seahawks @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 11 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff58°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

4-5 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

5-4 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

SF -6.5

✓ SEA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 22–29 SF

✗ SF (73%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -6.5

CloseSF -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -6.5

no move

CloseSF -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -6.5 · unchangedmodel SF -9.5

model SF -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 43% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -6.5

CloseSF -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 6.5-point home favorite against SEA, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 6.3; 50.5 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Very close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA LLWLL	2-7	22%	1-2	1-4
SF LWLWL	4-5	44%	3-2	4-5

Venue/role: SEA away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OOUUU	5-4	56%	4-5
SF UOUOU	5-4	56%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 47% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

SEA 31–21 SF SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 10 2024	San Francisco 49ers 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 24	SF -3.5	SF W
Dec 10 2023	Seattle Seahawks 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 28	SF -14	SEA W
Nov 23 2023	San Francisco 49ers 31 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -7	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#19

SF+3.2 →+4.8▲ 1.6#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SEA

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

SF better ▶

#22

Defense

SF better ▶

#13

−0.7 #27

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.3 #12

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ SEA faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #15	22.4 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #12	5.11 #8	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.04 #11	SF
Success rate	44% #14	43% #14	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #8	24.6 #23	SF
Yards / play	6.55 #2	5.54 #22	SF
EPA / play	+0.11 #4	+0.02 #20	SF
Success rate	47% #7	45% #24	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.1 #19	6.6 #20	10.7 #17	5.2 #13	7.1 #8	12.3 #12
SF allowed	1.9 #2	5.9 #12	7.8 #3	5.7 #22	9.0 #28	14.7 #29

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.4 #8	7.7 #11	13.1 #10	6.8 #6	6.0 #18	12.8 #8
SEA allowed	3.3 #7	7.8 #22	11.1 #16	6.4 #30	6.3 #20	12.8 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.