Falcons @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff49°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

6-4 · Power #20

final

Final

Denver Broncos

5-5 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

✓ DEN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 22–23 DEN

✓ DEN (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -1.5

no move

CloseDEN -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -1.5 · unchangedmodel ATL -1

model ATL -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 1.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 38–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 2.5; 46.5 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	WSH vs PIT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	27–28	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WLWWL	5-5	50%	3-1	1-1
DEN LWWLW	7-2	78%	2-1	3-0

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OUOUU	4-6	40%	6-4
DEN OOOOU	6-3	67%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
DEN	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 4–3 DEN ATL leads · 7 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−0.1▲ 0.7#16

DEN−1.0 →0.0▲ 1.0#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ATL

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ ATL better

#23

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #19

62 plays #15

Pace

◀ ATL faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	ATL off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #13	17.7 #4	DEN
Yards / play	6.01 #6	4.70 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #11	−0.11 #4	DEN
Success rate	48% #4	39% #4	Even

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #22	23.6 #20	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #24	5.49 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	+0.04 #24	Even
Success rate	41% #22	46% #28	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.5 #16	9.3 #5	13.8 #8	5.2 #14	4.2 #30	9.4 #23
DEN allowed	4.4 #16	6.2 #15	10.6 #14	3.3 #5	3.8 #2	7.1 #2

DEN scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.0 #29	8.7 #8	10.7 #16	3.1 #27	5.9 #20	9.0 #25
ATL allowed	4.0 #11	10.5 #31	14.5 #28	4.0 #8	5.1 #12	9.1 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.