Packers @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff56°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

6-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

4-5 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

GB -6.5

✓ CHI W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 25–19 CHI

✓ GB (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -6.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -6.5

no move

CloseGB -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -6.5 · unchangedmodel GB -5.5

model GB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -6.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 6.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 20–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 6.1; 44.6 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Close	KC @ LAC 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-7.5	17–10	L	U41.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5	37–30	W	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WWLLL	4-5	44%	2-1	2-3
CHI WWLLL	5-4	56%	3-1	2-3

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUOU	5-4	56%	6-3
CHI OOUUU	3-6	33%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 47% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CHI	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GB 41–16 CHI GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Chicago Bears 9 @ Green Bay Packers 17	GB -2.5	GB W
Sep 10 2023	Green Bay Packers 38 @ Chicago Bears 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+3.1▲ 2.6#7

CHI−0.3 →−1.5▼ 1.2#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

CHI

#10

Offense

◀ GB better

#27

#15

Defense

CHI better ▶

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #5

63 plays #10

Pace

Even

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #9	18.6 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.16 #3	5.37 #15	GB
EPA / play	+0.05 #12	−0.09 #6	CHI
Success rate	43% #15	41% #8	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #24	21.6 #11	GB
Yards / play	4.34 #31	5.29 #13	GB
EPA / play	−0.11 #25	−0.06 #9	GB
Success rate	39% #29	46% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.6 #7	7.8 #11	13.3 #10	6.1 #9	6.1 #15	12.2 #12
CHI allowed	4.3 #16	6.7 #18	11.0 #15	2.9 #5	4.7 #7	7.6 #5

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.1 #32	7.3 #16	8.4 #25	3.8 #20	7.2 #8	11.0 #17
GB allowed	2.7 #5	10.8 #31	13.4 #26	4.6 #11	3.6 #2	8.1 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.