Chiefs @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

6-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-5 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

KC -8.5

✓ LV W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 26–17 LV

✓ KC (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -9.5

CloseKC -8.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -9.5

1 → LV

CloseKC -8.5

1 pt toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -9.5 · closed KC -8.5 · moved 1 toward LVmodel KC -9.5

model KC -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -9.5

CloseKC -8.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as an 8.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 8; 49 points a game (usually 47). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	31–17	W	O42.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Loose	TEN @ HOU 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	28–25	L	O42.5
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Loose	KC @ DEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	9–24	L	U45.5
Loose	BAL @ ARI 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	31–24	L	O45
Loose	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7	30–10	W	U45.5
Loose	BUF @ CHI 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9	35–13	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
LV LWLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUUU	2-4	33%	6-0
LV OUOOU	4-3	57%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 84 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	3-6-1 33%
LV	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KC 36–19 LV KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 25 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 14	KC -11	LV W
Nov 26 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 31 @ Las Vegas Raiders 17	KC -9	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+4.1▲ 1.9#2

LV−0.8 →−3.6▼ 2.8#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

◀ KC better

#28

#11

Defense

◀ KC better

#21

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−1.9 #32

65 plays #5

Pace

◀ KC faster

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #13	26.1 #29	KC
Yards / play	5.43 #16	5.33 #18	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	−0.01 #18	KC
Success rate	52% #1	43% #17	KC

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #25	17.2 #5	KC
Yards / play	4.80 #26	5.23 #12	KC
EPA / play	−0.22 #31	−0.07 #10	KC
Success rate	39% #28	43% #16	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	2.8 #26	9.3 #7	12.2 #12	4.3 #17	7.8 #7	12.2 #13
LV allowed	3.7 #8	8.4 #23	12.1 #19	5.6 #19	8.4 #29	14.0 #28

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.4 #19	3.1 #30	7.6 #29	2.9 #30	7.3 #8	10.1 #20
KC allowed	5.0 #19	5.5 #9	10.5 #12	2.0 #3	4.7 #9	6.7 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.