Panthers @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-6 · Power #32

final

Final

Denver Broncos

4-3 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -12.5

✓ DEN W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 14–26 DEN

✓ DEN (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -12.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -7.5

5 → DEN

CloseDEN -12.5

5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Close40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -7.5 · closed DEN -12.5 · moved 5 toward DENmodel DEN -11

model DEN -11

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -12.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like DEN as a 12.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 28–14; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 42 points went over 40.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 28 against an average line of 12.5; 48 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DEN vs DET 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation	-12.5	38–10	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WLLLL	1-6	14%	1-3	1-6
DEN WWWLW	5-1	83%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OOOOU	5-2	71%	1-6
DEN UUOOO	4-2	67%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 75 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
DEN	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 2–6 DEN DEN leads · 8 games since 2004 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.5 →−7.0▼ 4.5#32

DEN−1.0 →+0.5▲ 1.5#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CAR

Longer bar = better

DEN

#27

Offense

DEN better ▶

#22

#31

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.9 #28

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

0.0 #17

58 plays #28

Pace

DEN faster ▶

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	CAR off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #28	15.1 #3	DEN
Yards / play	4.88 #25	4.39 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.19 #30	−0.19 #1	DEN
Success rate	39% #26	38% #2	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #22	34.7 #32	DEN
Yards / play	4.94 #24	6.03 #31	DEN
EPA / play	−0.09 #25	+0.17 #31	DEN
Success rate	42% #18	49% #31	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.0 #24	5.9 #22	8.9 #23	4.1 #19	2.7 #30	6.9 #29
DEN allowed	4.3 #14	5.0 #5	9.3 #6	2.3 #4	3.6 #3	5.9 #2

DEN scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.9 #25	6.0 #21	8.9 #23	3.4 #23	8.4 #4	11.9 #15
CAR allowed	8.7 #32	13.3 #32	22.0 #32	5.6 #19	7.1 #22	12.7 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.