Saints @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-6 · Power #25

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-7 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -7.5

✓ CAR W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 27–20 CAR

✗ NO (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -6.5

CloseNO -7.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -6.5

1 → NO

CloseNO -7.5

1 pt toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -6.5 · closed NO -7.5 · moved 1 toward NOmodel NO -2.5

model NO -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -6.5

CloseNO -7.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 7.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 23–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 6.6; 48 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Very close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	SEA @ HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	33–13	W	O41.5
Loose	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	TEN @ NYJ 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	24–27	L	O44
Loose	CIN @ DAL 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-7	17–20	L	U42
Loose	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLL	3-5	38%	2-2	1-1
CAR LLLLL	1-7	13%	0-3	1-7

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OUOOU	5-3	63%	2-6
CAR OOOUO	6-2	75%	1-7

Went over in Q4. Of 83 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CAR	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NO 31–24 CAR NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Carolina Panthers 10 @ New Orleans Saints 47	NO -3.5	NO W
Dec 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 6 @ New Orleans Saints 28	NO -5.5	NO W
Sep 18 2023	New Orleans Saints 20 @ Carolina Panthers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →−1.9▼ 2.4#25

CAR−2.5 →−7.3▼ 4.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

CAR

#21

Offense

◀ NO better

#28

#24

Defense

◀ NO better

#30

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.8 #29

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ NO faster

58 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #16	33.9 #32	NO
Yards / play	5.17 #22	5.95 #27	NO
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.15 #30	NO
Success rate	41% #21	48% #31	NO

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #29	25.8 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.86 #26	6.09 #32	CAR
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	0.00 #18	NO
Success rate	39% #26	45% #21	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.4 #8	10.1 #2	15.5 #4	2.4 #32	5.3 #23	7.6 #27
CAR allowed	7.6 #32	14.3 #32	21.9 #32	5.8 #22	6.3 #19	12.0 #20

CAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.5 #23	5.1 #26	8.6 #24	3.6 #22	3.3 #31	6.9 #29
NO allowed	4.6 #16	8.0 #21	12.6 #22	4.6 #13	8.5 #28	13.1 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.