Raiders @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-6 · Power #27

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

3-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

✓ CIN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 20–27 CIN

✓ CIN (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -7.5

CloseCIN -7.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -7.5

no move

CloseCIN -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -7.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -4.5

model CIN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 42% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -7.5

CloseCIN -7.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 7.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 6.9; 46.4 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Very close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLLWW	4-4	50%	2-2	4-3
CIN WLWWL	4-4	50%	0-4	3-3

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOUO	5-3	63%	2-6
CIN OOUUO	5-3	63%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 87 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
CIN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 3–7 CIN CIN leads · 10 games since 2003 · CIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−3.7▼ 2.9#29

CIN−0.2 →−1.3▼ 1.1#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

CIN

#27

Offense

CIN better ▶

#11

#19

Defense

◀ LV better

#24

−1.6 #31

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

0.0 #16

61 plays #22

Pace

◀ LV faster

57 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #26	25.4 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.71 #28	5.34 #15	CIN
EPA / play	−0.20 #32	+0.08 #28	Even
Success rate	40% #23	48% #30	LV

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #11	26.3 #27	CIN
Yards / play	5.67 #13	5.27 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.02 #20	CIN
Success rate	45% #13	45% #19	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.8 #15	3.1 #30	7.9 #29	2.9 #28	7.3 #9	10.1 #21
CIN allowed	2.1 #3	8.5 #24	10.6 #15	6.5 #27	7.9 #25	14.4 #29

CIN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.8 #15	6.6 #18	11.4 #15	7.6 #4	5.4 #21	13.0 #8
LV allowed	4.1 #12	8.6 #25	12.8 #23	4.9 #14	8.6 #29	13.5 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.