Bengals @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Thu, Nov 7, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

4-5 · Power #14

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

6-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

✓ CIN W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–29 BAL

✓ BAL (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -6

CloseBAL -5.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -6

0.5 → CIN

CloseBAL -5.5

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -6 · closed BAL -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel BAL -9

model BAL -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 46% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -6

CloseBAL -5.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 5.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 35–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 6.2; 53.8 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7	30–29	L	O51.5
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	30–38	L	O48.5
Loose	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	DAL vs GB 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-7	32–48	L	O52
Loose	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWWLW	5-4	56%	4-0	1-1
BAL WLWLW	5-4	56%	2-2	5-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUUOO	6-3	67%	4-5
BAL OOOOO	8-1	89%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 11 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–55.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
BAL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CIN 25–30 BAL BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Baltimore Ravens 41 @ Cincinnati Bengals 38	BAL -2.5	BAL W
Nov 16 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 20 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -3.5	BAL W
Sep 17 2023	Baltimore Ravens 27 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.7▼ 0.5#20

BAL+3.1 →+5.4▲ 2.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CIN

Longer bar = better

BAL

#10

Offense

BAL better ▶

#22

Defense

Even

#20

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #12

59 plays #26

Pace

BAL faster ▶

63 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #7	24.3 #23	CIN
Yards / play	5.61 #14	5.63 #21	CIN
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	+0.04 #23	CIN
Success rate	46% #11	42% #11	Even

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #2	25.2 #25	BAL
Yards / play	7.13 #1	5.18 #9	BAL
EPA / play	+0.23 #1	+0.05 #24	BAL
Success rate	51% #2	47% #28	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.0 #12	7.0 #19	12.0 #15	8.3 #4	5.9 #18	14.2 #5
BAL allowed	3.2 #6	5.8 #9	9.0 #8	5.0 #14	10.3 #32	15.3 #31

BAL scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.3 #10	10.6 #2	15.9 #3	8.4 #3	6.8 #10	15.2 #2
CIN allowed	2.7 #4	7.9 #22	10.6 #13	5.8 #23	8.6 #28	14.3 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.