Broncos @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff57°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

5-4 · Power #15

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

8-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -7.5

✓ DEN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 16–24 KC

✓ KC (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -9

CloseKC -7.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -9

1.5 → DEN

CloseKC -7.5

1.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -9 · closed KC -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward DENmodel KC -8

model KC -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 42% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -9

CloseKC -7.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 7.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 16–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 7.3; 37.9 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	NYJ vs NE 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	24–3	W	U39.5
Close	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Loose	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	24–17	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WLWWL	6-2	75%	4-1	3-2
KC LWWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OOOOO	6-2	75%	5-4
KC UUUOO	4-4	50%	8-0

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 48% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%
KC	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DEN 24–31 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 9 @ Denver Broncos 24	KC -7	DEN W
Oct 12 2023	Denver Broncos 8 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -9.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →−0.1▲ 0.9#15

KC+2.2 →+4.5▲ 2.3#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DEN

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

KC better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ DEN better

#10

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−0.5 #25

62 plays #19

Pace

KC faster ▶

67 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #23	18.4 #4	KC
Yards / play	4.98 #25	5.12 #7	KC
EPA / play	−0.08 #26	−0.04 #12	KC
Success rate	41% #22	44% #17	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #10	17.9 #3	DEN
Yards / play	5.24 #19	4.71 #2	DEN
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	−0.12 #3	DEN
Success rate	52% #1	40% #7	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.2 #27	8.1 #10	10.3 #19	3.4 #23	6.6 #15	10.0 #21
KC allowed	4.6 #19	5.4 #7	10.0 #11	3.1 #4	5.3 #13	8.4 #7

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.4 #23	9.1 #7	12.5 #14	3.3 #25	8.9 #2	12.1 #16
DEN allowed	4.9 #22	5.8 #10	10.7 #14	3.3 #6	3.9 #3	7.2 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.