Steelers @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff55°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

7-2 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

WSH -1.5

✓ PIT W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 22–24 WSH

✗ WSH (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -2.5

CloseWSH -1.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -2.5

1 → PIT

CloseWSH -1.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -2.5 · closed WSH -1.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel WSH -3

model WSH -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -2.5

CloseWSH -1.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 1.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 28–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 2.5; 54 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	WSH vs CHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-1.5	18–15	W	U46.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Loose	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Loose	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Loose	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	MIN vs DET 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & season form	-1.5	29–31	L	O50.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-2	23–20	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LLWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	2-0
WSH WWWWW	8-1	89%	4-0	5-0

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OUOOO	4-3	57%	6-2
WSH OOUUO	6-3	67%	7-2

Went over in Q3. Of 90 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
WSH	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 6–1 WSH PIT leads · 7 games since 2000 · PIT has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+2.4▲ 2.8#8

WSH−3.1 →+1.2▲ 4.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PIT

Longer bar = better

WSH

#16

Offense

WSH better ▶

Defense

◀ PIT better

#20

+1.3 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.6 #7

63 plays #12

Pace

Even

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #13	21.0 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #21	5.69 #24	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	+0.02 #20	PIT
Success rate	42% #17	46% #25	PIT

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #3	14.9 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.24 #3	5.26 #9	WSH
EPA / play	+0.22 #2	−0.08 #7	WSH
Success rate	49% #3	42% #10	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.1 #25	5.1 #25	8.3 #25	6.6 #8	8.5 #4	15.1 #3
WSH allowed	3.2 #6	5.1 #6	8.3 #4	4.9 #11	7.8 #24	12.7 #21

WSH scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.6 #4	10.6 #2	16.1 #2	6.6 #9	6.6 #15	13.1 #6
PIT allowed	5.5 #26	3.8 #4	9.3 #8	0.0 #1	5.6 #15	5.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.