Lions @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

4-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

MIN -1.5

✓ DET W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 24–25 MIN

✗ MIN (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -2.5

CloseMIN -1.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -2.5

1 → DET

CloseMIN -1.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -2.5 · closed MIN -1.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -2

model DET -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -2.5

CloseMIN -1.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like MIN as a 1.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DET won 31–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 60 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 42%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.7; 56.9 points a game (usually 43.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Loose	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · loose	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Loose	MIA vs DAL 2023 · Week 16 · loose	-1.5	22–20	W	U48.5
Loose	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation	-3	23–30	L	O51
Loose	BAL vs MIA 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-3	56–19	W	O47
Loose	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WLWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	—
MIN WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UUUOO	2-3	40%	4-1
MIN UUUOU	1-4	20%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
MIN	6-4 60%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DET 18–36 MIN MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Detroit Lions 30	DET -3.5	DET W
Dec 24 2023	Detroit Lions 30 @ Minnesota Vikings 24	DET -2.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+3.9▲ 2.3#3

MIN−0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

DET

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ DET better

#12

#10

Defense

MIN better ▶

+1.2 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #7

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ DET faster

59 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #1	15.2 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.34 #3	4.81 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.22 #1	Even
Success rate	50% #3	37% #2	Even

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #5	18.2 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #17	5.20 #11	DET
EPA / play	−0.01 #17	−0.13 #5	DET
Success rate	46% #10	42% #16	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.8 #16	12.0 #1	16.8 #4	8.2 #1	4.0 #26	12.2 #10
MIN allowed	0.6 #1	4.2 #8	4.8 #2	2.6 #5	7.8 #25	10.4 #15

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	9.6 #1	7.6 #14	17.2 #2	5.6 #11	5.0 #22	10.6 #18
DET allowed	3.8 #8	4.0 #6	7.8 #4	6.0 #24	4.4 #11	10.4 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.