Raiders @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff84°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-4 · Power #27

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

1-4 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -7.5

✓ LV W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 19–27 LAR

✓ LAR (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -5.5

CloseLAR -7.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -5.5

2 → LAR

CloseLAR -7.5

2 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -5.5 · closed LAR -7.5 · moved 2 toward LARmodel LAR -6

model LAR -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 40% (42 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -5.5

CloseLAR -7.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 7.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 20–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 43%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 7.2; 42.6 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & season form	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	ATL vs DET 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7	16–10	L	U44
Loose	GB vs LAR 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	24–12	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3
LAR LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV OOUOO	4-2	67%	2-4
LAR UOOOU	3-2	60%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 46% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LAR	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 1–6 LAR LAR leads · 7 games since 2002 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−3.9▼ 3.1#30

LAR+0.7 →−1.2▼ 1.9#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

LAR

#26

Offense

LAR better ▶

#17

#20

Defense

◀ LV better

#31

−1.7 #32

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

−0.4 #24

60 plays #22

Pace

LAR faster ▶

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #27	27.8 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #23	6.23 #32	LV
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	+0.16 #31	Even
Success rate	40% #23	49% #30	LV

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #25	27.2 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.14 #19	5.38 #14	LV
EPA / play	−0.03 #18	+0.03 #21	Even
Success rate	48% #6	43% #18	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #11	2.7 #31	7.8 #26	2.8 #28	7.5 #6	10.3 #18
LAR allowed	7.0 #30	6.6 #16	13.6 #26	9.0 #32	4.0 #7	13.0 #26

LAR scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.2 #31	5.2 #26	6.4 #31	4.8 #18	7.6 #5	12.4 #10
LV allowed	4.3 #16	7.5 #20	11.8 #18	5.5 #22	9.8 #30	15.3 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.