Browns @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

1-4 · Power #28

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

2-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -8.5

✓ CLE W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 18–27 PHI

✓ PHI (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -9.5

ClosePHI -8.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -9.5

1 → CLE

ClosePHI -8.5

1 pt toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -9.5 · closed PHI -8.5 · moved 1 toward CLEmodel PHI -5

model PHI -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 45% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -9.5

ClosePHI -8.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as an 8.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PHI won 20–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 7.5; 44.1 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Loose	GB vs LAR 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	24–12	W	U40
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	CLE vs CHI 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	26–6	W	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	16–10	L	U44
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7	29–27	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-1
PHI WLWL	2-2	50%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
PHI OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 50% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
PHI	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 1–6 PHI PHI leads · 7 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−2.4▼ 3.5#28

PHI−0.1 →−0.3▼ 0.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CLE

Longer bar = better

PHI

#31

Offense

PHI better ▶

#14

#15

Defense

◀ CLE better

#24

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

◀ CLE better

−1.5 #31

63 plays #15

Pace

PHI faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	CLE off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #30	24.0 #21	PHI
Yards / play	3.81 #32	5.97 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.21 #31	+0.10 #28	Even
Success rate	34% #32	43% #16	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	24.2 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #15	5.36 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	−0.03 #16	PHI
Success rate	45% #12	39% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	5.4 #12	1.8 #32	7.2 #28	2.6 #29	6.0 #17	8.6 #24
PHI allowed	5.8 #25	7.3 #24	13.0 #21	5.5 #21	5.5 #17	11.0 #18

PHI scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0 #32	7.8 #12	7.8 #27	6.5 #6	7.3 #8	13.8 #6
CLE allowed	4.2 #14	11.4 #31	15.6 #30	7.4 #31	1.2 #1	8.6 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.