Commanders @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff76°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

4-1 · Power #10

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

3-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

✓ WSH W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 22–29 BAL

✓ BAL (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -6.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -6.5

1 → BAL

CloseBAL -7.5

1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -6.5 · closed BAL -7.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel BAL -6.5

model BAL -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 43% (65 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -6.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 7.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 30–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 50.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 6.6; 48.3 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	DET vs TB 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7.5	16–20	L	U51.5
Loose	LAR vs TEN 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	16–28	L	U53
Loose	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Loose	BUF vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	10–27	L	U48.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	24–27	L	U54.5
Loose	TB vs PHI 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-7.5	31–15	W	U48
Loose	DAL vs GB 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-7	32–48	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	2-1
BAL LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OUOOO	4-1	80%	4-1
BAL OOOUO	4-1	80%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 27 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
BAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 3–4 BAL BAL leads · 7 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →0.0▲ 3.1#15

BAL+3.1 →+4.8▲ 1.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WSH

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

Even

#24

Defense

BAL better ▶

#20

0.0 #17

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #14

63 plays #17

Pace

BAL faster ▶

66 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #1	25.2 #26	WSH
Yards / play	6.25 #3	5.64 #25	WSH
EPA / play	+0.26 #1	+0.04 #21	WSH
Success rate	49% #4	40% #9	WSH

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #2	23.0 #20	BAL
Yards / play	6.82 #1	5.67 #26	BAL
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	+0.07 #25	BAL
Success rate	51% #2	46% #25	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.8 #15	10.8 #1	15.6 #5	8.0 #2	7.4 #7	15.4 #2
BAL allowed	2.6 #3	6.4 #16	9.0 #9	5.6 #22	10.6 #31	16.2 #31

BAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.6 #5	7.4 #14	15.0 #6	5.6 #10	8.2 #3	13.8 #5
WSH allowed	5.2 #21	5.0 #11	10.2 #13	4.8 #14	8.0 #27	12.8 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.