Panthers @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-5 · Power #32

final

Final

Washington Commanders

4-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -10.5

✓ WSH W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 20–30 WSH

✓ WSH (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -9.5

CloseWSH -10.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -9.5

1 → WSH

CloseWSH -10.5

1 pt toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -9.5 · closed WSH -10.5 · moved 1 toward WSHmodel WSH -10

model WSH -10

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -9.5

CloseWSH -10.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like WSH as a 10.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 40–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 6 similar games. 47 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 6.

Favorite won

5 of 683%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 9.8; 47.8 points a game (usually 47.2). When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TB vs MIA 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11	45–17	W	O48
Loose	IND vs JAX 2021 · Week 10 · loose	-10.5	23–17	L	U48
Loose	MIN vs DET 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	19–17	L	U50
Loose	IND vs NYJ 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-10	45–30	W	O45.5
Loose	KC vs DEN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-9.5	19–8	W	U48.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-5
WSH WWWWW	5-1	83%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UOOOO	5-1	83%	1-5
WSH UOOOO	5-1	83%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 47% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
WSH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 7–8 WSH WSH leads · 15 games since 1999 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.5 →−6.0▼ 3.5#32

WSH−3.1 →−0.1▲ 3.0#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CAR

Longer bar = better

WSH

#26

Offense

WSH better ▶

#30

Defense

WSH better ▶

#26

−0.7 #25

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.2 #12

60 plays #20

Pace

WSH faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #28	24.2 #22	WSH
Yards / play	4.96 #21	6.00 #29	CAR
EPA / play	−0.16 #27	+0.09 #26	Even
Success rate	39% #29	47% #26	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #3	33.8 #32	WSH
Yards / play	6.13 #5	5.92 #27	WSH
EPA / play	+0.23 #1	+0.15 #30	WSH
Success rate	49% #5	48% #29	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.5 #22	6.8 #17	10.3 #21	4.8 #16	2.0 #31	6.8 #28
WSH allowed	4.8 #18	6.5 #12	11.3 #16	5.7 #23	7.2 #23	12.8 #25

WSH scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.5 #15	10.2 #3	14.7 #8	7.2 #4	7.8 #4	15.0 #1
CAR allowed	8.5 #32	12.7 #32	21.2 #32	4.8 #15	7.8 #26	12.7 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.