Bengals @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff63°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

2-4 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

1-5 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

✓ CIN W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 25–20 CLE

✓ CIN (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -4.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -4.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -5.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -4.5 · closed CIN -5.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -2.5

model CIN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 48% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -4.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 5.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 21–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 5.4; 43.6 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	LV @ LAR 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-6	16–17	L	U42
Loose	SEA @ LAR 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7	27–23	L	O41
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	19–20	L	U44
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	2-2
CLE WLLLW	2-4	33%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOOU	4-2	67%	2-4
CLE UUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 51% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
CLE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CIN 32–22 CLE CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31	CIN -7	CIN W
Sep 10 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 3 @ Cleveland Browns 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.4▼ 0.2#18

CLE+1.1 →−3.0▼ 4.1#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CIN

Longer bar = better

CLE

Offense

◀ CIN better

#31

#24

Defense

CLE better ▶

#17

0.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.2 #19

58 plays #29

Pace

CLE faster ▶

61 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #9	23.5 #19	CIN
Yards / play	6.03 #8	5.47 #19	CIN
EPA / play	+0.13 #5	0.00 #18	CIN
Success rate	47% #7	41% #10	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	CLE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #30	25.3 #25	CIN
Yards / play	3.93 #32	5.33 #13	CIN
EPA / play	−0.18 #29	+0.09 #27	Even
Success rate	34% #32	50% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.0 #20	8.3 #11	12.3 #14	6.7 #4	7.2 #10	13.8 #4
CLE allowed	3.5 #6	11.2 #31	14.7 #27	6.7 #28	2.2 #1	8.8 #11

CLE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	4.5 #17	3.2 #29	7.7 #28	2.2 #31	6.0 #16	8.2 #27
CIN allowed	2.8 #4	8.7 #23	11.5 #16	6.3 #26	7.0 #20	13.3 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.