Eagles @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

4-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

3-4 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

✓ PHI W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 23–26 CIN

✗ CIN (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

no move

CloseCIN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · unchangedmodel PHI -0.5

model PHI -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (99 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 2.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 37–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.3 against an average line of 2.8; 49.1 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-0
CIN LWLWW	4-3	57%	0-3	3-2

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UUOUU	2-4	33%	4-2
CIN OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CIN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PHI 2–3 CIN (2 tied) CIN leads · 7 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.4#10

CIN−0.2 →−0.5▼ 0.3#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PHI

Longer bar = better

CIN

#13

Offense

CIN better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ PHI better

#21

−1.0 #29

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.3 #10

65 plays #2

Pace

◀ PHI faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #17	23.7 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #15	5.17 #9	CIN
EPA / play	+0.08 #7	+0.05 #25	PHI
Success rate	45% #11	48% #30	PHI

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #10	19.2 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #9	5.17 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #5	0.00 #19	CIN
Success rate	45% #10	40% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0 #32	9.2 #7	9.2 #22	6.0 #9	7.2 #9	13.2 #9
CIN allowed	2.4 #3	8.3 #22	10.7 #14	5.4 #19	7.1 #21	12.6 #23

CIN scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.4 #15	7.1 #14	11.6 #15	7.7 #4	6.1 #16	13.9 #7
PHI allowed	3.8 #10	7.0 #17	10.8 #16	3.7 #8	4.7 #10	8.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.