Cowboys @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 8 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff70°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

3-3 · Power #22

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

3-4 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -5.5

✓ SF W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 22–27 SF

✓ SF (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -5.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -5.5

no move

CloseSF -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -5.5 · unchangedmodel SF -5.5 matches the line

model SF -5.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 44% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -5.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 5.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 6; 47.3 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Loose	LAR vs WSH 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–20	W	U48.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LLLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-2
SF LWLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOUUO	4-2	67%	3-3
SF OOUOU	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 66 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
SF	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DAL 7–7 SF Series tied · 14 games since 2000 · SF has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	Dallas Cowboys 10 @ San Francisco 49ers 42	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+2.5 →+0.3▼ 2.2#16

SF+3.2 →+3.9▲ 0.7#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

DAL

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

SF better ▶

#26

Defense

SF better ▶

#15

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.3 #10

65 plays #5

Pace

◀ DAL faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	DAL off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #22	22.6 #17	SF
Yards / play	5.22 #19	5.33 #14	SF
EPA / play	−0.09 #25	−0.04 #13	SF
Success rate	40% #24	43% #16	SF

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	28.0 #31	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #2	5.72 #24	SF
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.14 #30	SF
Success rate	46% #10	43% #17	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.3 #20	7.0 #16	11.3 #16	3.2 #29	6.5 #14	9.7 #22
SF allowed	2.4 #4	5.7 #13	8.1 #2	6.3 #25	8.1 #27	14.4 #30

SF scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.6 #6	9.0 #9	14.6 #9	5.3 #12	5.9 #19	11.1 #16
DAL allowed	7.3 #31	9.0 #25	16.3 #31	6.7 #29	5.0 #10	11.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.