Bills @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff56°F15 mphgusts 31Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

5-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

4-3 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

✓ BUF W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 25–21 SEA

✓ BUF (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -2.5

CloseBUF -3.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -2.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -3.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open49.5

▼ 4

Close45.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -2.5 · closed BUF -3.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -4.5

model BUF -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 57% (63 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -2.5

CloseBUF -3.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3.5-point road favorite at SEA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 3.6; 43.6 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	BAL @ JAX 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	23–7	W	U42.5
Loose	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	BAL @ LAC 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-3	20–10	W	U49
Loose	DAL @ PHI 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	51–26	W	O45.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	21–13	W	U42.5
Loose	SEA @ NE 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–20	L	O39.5
Loose	BUF @ NO 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	31–6	W	U45
Loose	SF @ TEN 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	17–20	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-1
SEA WLLLW	2-5	29%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; SEA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOO	4-3	57%	5-2
SEA UOOOU	5-2	71%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 49% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
SEA	6-4 60%	2-7-1 22%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 5–4 SEA BUF leads · 9 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+3.0▲ 0.7#5

SEA−0.6 →+0.2▲ 0.8#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BUF

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ BUF better

#12

Defense

◀ BUF better

#19

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.4 #23

56 plays #32

Pace

SEA faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #5	23.4 #19	BUF
Yards / play	5.72 #11	5.42 #19	BUF
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.01 #17	BUF
Success rate	45% #13	45% #21	BUF

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	19.4 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.72 #12	5.32 #16	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	45% #12	40% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.7 #17	9.7 #6	14.4 #10	7.9 #2	6.1 #16	14.0 #5
SEA allowed	3.3 #6	8.6 #24	11.9 #17	5.4 #18	6.1 #19	11.6 #20

SEA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.3 #11	6.1 #19	11.4 #15	6.7 #7	7.1 #10	13.9 #8
BUF allowed	6.9 #29	6.7 #17	13.6 #26	2.9 #5	3.0 #2	5.9 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.