Saints @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff79°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-5 · Power #25

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

3-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -7.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 19–26 LAC

✓ LAC (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -7.5

CloseLAC -7.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -7.5

no move

CloseLAC -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -7.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -3.5

model LAC -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 40% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -7.5

CloseLAC -7.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 7.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 26–8; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 7.5; 41.9 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	41–21	W	O43
Loose	NYJ vs NE 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	24–3	W	U39.5
Loose	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	20–16	L	U40
Loose	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Loose	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	14–33	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LWLLL	3-4	43%	2-1	2-3
LAC WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOUOO	5-2	71%	2-5
LAC UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 48% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LAC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 5–2 LAC NO leads · 7 games since 2000 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →−1.5▼ 2.0#24

LAC−0.7 →+0.6▲ 1.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

LAC

#18

Offense

◀ NO better

#22

#27

Defense

LAC better ▶

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+1.0 #5

61 plays #21

Pace

Even

59 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	NO off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	13.8 #1	LAC
Yards / play	5.14 #20	5.27 #13	LAC
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	−0.12 #4	LAC
Success rate	42% #16	41% #11	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #27	25.7 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #21	6.12 #32	LAC
EPA / play	−0.02 #19	0.00 #20	Even
Success rate	40% #22	47% #29	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.9 #6	11.1 #2	17.0 #2	2.3 #31	6.0 #17	8.3 #25
LAC allowed	1.2 #1	3.5 #2	4.7 #1	1.5 #2	7.7 #24	9.2 #8

LAC scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.0 #4	6.0 #21	12.0 #13	2.0 #32	3.7 #27	5.7 #32
NO allowed	5.3 #22	7.9 #21	13.1 #25	4.3 #13	8.3 #29	12.6 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.