Chargers @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Mon, Oct 21, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

3-2 · Power #13

final

Final

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -1.5

✓ ARI W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 23–22 ARI

✗ LAC (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -1.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

1 → ARI

CloseLAC -1.5

1 pt toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · closed LAC -1.5 · moved 1 toward ARImodel LAC -1.5 matches the line

model LAC -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -1.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 1.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 17–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 2.2; 42.2 points a game (usually 43.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Close	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Loose	PHI @ TB 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-0.5	16–33	L	O43.5
Loose	NE @ ARI 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2	27–13	W	U44
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Loose	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	6–23	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-0
ARI WLLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2
ARI OUOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 47% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ARI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 5–4 ARI LAC leads · 9 games since 2001 · ARI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+0.5▲ 1.2#12

ARI−1.7 →−2.1▼ 0.4#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LAC

Longer bar = better

ARI

#23

Offense

ARI better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ LAC better

#30

+1.4 #2

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

0.0 #16

58 plays #26

Pace

◀ LAC faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #25	27.2 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.81 #25	5.93 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #19	+0.13 #29	LAC
Success rate	40% #24	52% #32	LAC

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	ARI off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #18	13.2 #1	LAC
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.15 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #12	−0.15 #3	LAC
Success rate	45% #9	39% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	7.2 #3	6.0 #20	13.2 #12	1.8 #32	3.2 #28	5.0 #32
ARI allowed	5.2 #21	11.0 #30	16.2 #30	6.3 #27	4.7 #10	11.0 #16

ARI scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	7.0 #4	6.0 #20	13.0 #13	3.8 #21	5.3 #21	9.2 #22
LAC allowed	1.4 #2	2.8 #1	4.2 #1	1.8 #2	7.2 #25	9.0 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.