Bills @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Mon, Oct 14, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff49°F15 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

3-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

2-3 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

BUF -1.5

✓ BUF W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 21–19 NYJ

✓ BUF (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -1.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3

1.5 → NYJ

CloseBUF -1.5

1.5 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3 · closed BUF -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward NYJmodel BUF -3.5

model BUF -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (65 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -1.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 1.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 23–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.4 against an average line of 2.1; 49 points a game (usually 43.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Loose	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-1	30–26	W	O43
Loose	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI @ TB 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-0.5	16–33	L	O43.5
Loose	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	22–17	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1
NYJ LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOUU	2-3	40%	3-2
NYJ OUUUU	1-4	20%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 78 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NYJ	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUF 29–25 NYJ BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	New York Jets 6 @ Buffalo Bills 32	BUF -8.5	BUF W
Sep 11 2023	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New York Jets 22	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+2.4▲ 0.1#5

NYJ−1.2 →+0.3▲ 1.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BUF

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#10

Offense

◀ BUF better

#24

#12

Defense

NYJ better ▶

+1.4 #3

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

0.0 #18

56 plays #32

Pace

NYJ faster ▶

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #5	17.0 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.37 #17	4.26 #1	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.17 #2	Even
Success rate	43% #14	37% #2	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #25	21.2 #11	BUF
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.28 #13	BUF
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	−0.06 #11	BUF
Success rate	41% #19	41% #13	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.2 #13	9.6 #5	14.8 #8	9.0 #1	4.6 #24	13.6 #6
NYJ allowed	4.0 #12	5.2 #11	9.2 #10	4.8 #14	3.0 #2	7.8 #7

NYJ scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	5.4 #20	8.2 #24	5.2 #13	5.2 #22	10.4 #19
BUF allowed	7.0 #28	6.6 #17	13.6 #23	3.4 #9	4.2 #10	7.6 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.