Steelers @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-0 · Power #12

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

1-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

✓ IND W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 23–21 IND

✗ PIT (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -1.5

ClosePIT -2.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -1.5

1 → PIT

ClosePIT -2.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open39.5

▲ 1

Close40.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -1.5 · closed PIT -2.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel PIT -2

model PIT -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 48% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -1.5

ClosePIT -2.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 2.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 40.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3; 42.9 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Loose	CLE @ IND 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	39–38	L	O40.5
Loose	BAL @ JAX 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	23–7	W	U42.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form	-3	21–13	W	U42.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Loose	NO @ HOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U41.5
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-3	36–22	W	O40
Loose	JAX @ PIT 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	20–10	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT W–W	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
IND WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT U–U	0-2	0%	3-0
IND OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
IND	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 12–4 IND PIT leads · 16 games since 2002 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 16 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 13 @ Indianapolis Colts 30	IND -1	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+1.5▲ 1.9#9

IND−0.6 →−1.7▼ 1.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

PIT

Longer bar = better

IND

#24

Offense

IND better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ PIT better

#14

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.7 #27

63 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

50 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	PIT off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #24	20.3 #14	IND
Yards / play	4.59 #28	5.26 #15	IND
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	−0.03 #14	Even
Success rate	39% #27	40% #11	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	IND off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #17	8.7 #1	PIT
Yards / play	6.31 #3	4.55 #4	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	−0.25 #1	PIT
Success rate	40% #20	37% #4	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.3 #18	5.3 #19	8.7 #22	4.0 #19	4.3 #23	8.3 #22
IND allowed	5.3 #20	2.0 #1	7.3 #5	3.0 #8	10.0 #29	13.0 #25

IND scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	2.3 #26	2.3 #30	4.7 #30	5.3 #12	9.3 #4	14.7 #2
PIT allowed	3.3 #8	3.3 #5	6.7 #4	0.0 #1	2.0 #1	2.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.