Jaguars @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-3 · Power #29

final

Final

Houston Texans

2-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–26 HOU

✓ HOU (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -4.5

CloseHOU -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -4.5

1 → HOU

CloseHOU -5.5

1 pt toward Houston Texans

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -4.5 · closed HOU -5.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -5

model HOU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 43% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -4.5

CloseHOU -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 5.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 6.4; 47.6 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · loose	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	LAC vs LV 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–17	W	U49
Loose	GB vs PIT 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	27–17	W	U45
Loose	WSH vs CHI 2023 · Week 5 · loose	-6	20–40	L	O45
Loose	IND vs TEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	17–24	L	U43.5
Loose	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	26–14	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
HOU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
HOU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
HOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JAX 16–33 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 24 @ Houston Texans 21	JAX -1	JAX W
Sep 24 2023	Houston Texans 37 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−1.9▼ 2.1#26

HOU+0.1 →+0.5▲ 0.4#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

JAX

Longer bar = better

HOU

#26

Offense

HOU better ▶

#21

#26

Defense

HOU better ▶

#14

−1.0 #29

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

0.0 #18

58 plays #23

Pace

HOU faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	13.3 #30	24.7 #23	HOU
Yards / play	4.79 #24	4.63 #5	HOU
EPA / play	−0.15 #25	−0.07 #12	HOU
Success rate	39% #24	40% #15	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #21	28.3 #29	HOU
Yards / play	5.12 #19	5.71 #27	HOU
EPA / play	−0.06 #19	+0.16 #30	HOU
Success rate	39% #26	43% #19	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.3 #26	5.3 #19	7.7 #26	4.7 #14	1.0 #30	5.7 #28
HOU allowed	8.0 #28	2.3 #2	10.3 #17	4.3 #12	10.0 #29	14.3 #28

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.0 #25	6.3 #14	9.3 #20	3.3 #21	5.7 #14	9.0 #18
JAX allowed	6.7 #27	11.3 #32	18.0 #30	4.3 #12	6.0 #22	10.3 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.