Jaguars @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Mon, Sep 23, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff68°F5 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-2 · Power #29

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

2-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

✓ BUF W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–26 BUF

✓ BUF (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -6

CloseBUF -4.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -6

1.5 → JAX

CloseBUF -4.5

1.5 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -6 · closed BUF -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward JAXmodel BUF -7.5

model BUF -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -6

CloseBUF -4.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like BUF as a 4.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 47–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 7 similar games. 57 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

6 of 786%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 786%

Above normal · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 4.6; 46.9 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BUF vs WSH 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-7	43–21	W	O45.5
Loose	KC vs LAC 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	31–17	W	O47.5
Loose	CAR vs PHI 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	18–21	L	U47
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-3.5	34–20	W	O46.5
Loose	SF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	32–19	W	O43.5
Loose	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · loose	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Loose	ARI vs SF 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form	-6	17–10	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
BUF LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UU	0-2	0%	0-2
BUF OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 53 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BUF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 8–10 BUF BUF leads · 18 games since 2001 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 25 @ Buffalo Bills 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−0.5▼ 0.7#19

BUF+2.3 →+3.3▲ 1.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

JAX

Longer bar = better

BUF

#21

Offense

BUF better ▶

#16

Defense

BUF better ▶

#10

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.5 #2

53 plays #30

Pace

Even

52 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	JAX off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #29	19.0 #12	BUF
Yards / play	5.62 #14	4.60 #4	BUF
EPA / play	−0.09 #23	−0.12 #8	BUF
Success rate	40% #19	41% #16	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #2	19.0 #9	BUF
Yards / play	5.82 #10	5.36 #19	BUF
EPA / play	+0.23 #1	+0.02 #23	BUF
Success rate	52% #1	40% #12	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 28 teams

JAX scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.5	6.5	10.0	3.5	1.5	5.0
BUF allowed	7.0	6.5	13.5	0.0	5.5	5.5

BUF scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	3.5	13.5	17.0	10.5	5.0	15.5
JAX allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	5.0	4.0	9.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.