Mon, Sep 9, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · at San Francisco 49ers
Closing spread
SF -3.5
✓ SF W
Total
43.5
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
NYJ 19–24 SF
✓ SF (65%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSF -5.5
CloseSF -3.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSF -5.5
2 → NYJ
CloseSF -3.5
2 pts toward New York Jets
Total
Open44.5
▼ 1
Close43.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SF -5.5 · closed SF -3.5 · moved 2 toward NYJmodel SF -10
model SF -10
Opened 44.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43
model 43
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (73 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSF -5.5
CloseSF -3.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
SF as a 3.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: SF won 32–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.8; 41.2 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-4.5 | 17–31 | L | O44 |
| Loose |  CAR vs  NYJ2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-3.5 | 19–14 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose |  PIT vs  CIN2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation |
-3 | 10–24 | L | U42 |
| Loose |  PHI vs  TEN2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4.5 | 35–10 | W | O44.5 |
| Loose |  LV vs  MIA2021 · Week 3 · loose |
-3.5 | 31–28 | L | O44.5 |
| Loose |  SEA vs  JAX2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation |
-4 | 31–7 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation |
-3.5 | 17–24 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |  DAL vs  WSH2022 · Week 4 · loose |
-3 | 25–10 | W | U41 |
| Loose |  TB vs CAR2022 · Week 17 · loose |
-3.5 | 30–24 | W | O40.5 |
| Loose |  CLE vs PIT2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation |
-5 | 10–15 | L | U43 |
LARHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Jets ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New York Jets
2 pts (SF -5.5 → SF -3.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
New York Jets on a cross-country trip
New York Jets cross 3 time zones (2,547 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Wind 14 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 14 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
New York Jets have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 52 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 17% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
| SF | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-3-1 67% |
Recent meetings
The series
NYJ 2–5 SF
SF leads · 7 games since 2001 · SF has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
SF +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 14 mph
gusts 26 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
NYJ1st game
SF1st game
Even
Travel
NYJ 2,547 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
ARI @ 
BUF
NE @ 
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DET
BAL @ 
KC
GB vs 
ATL
CHI
HOU @ 
IND