Packers @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

1-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

0-2 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 21–23 TEN

✗ TEN (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -2.5

CloseTEN -2.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEN -2.5

no move

CloseTEN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open37.5

▼ 1

Close36.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEN -2.5 · unchangedmodel GB -3.5

model GB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -2.5

CloseTEN -2.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 30–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 36.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 2.9; 38.5 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Loose	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	14–16	L	U36.5
Loose	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Loose	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Loose	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Loose	DEN vs CLE 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	29–12	W	O37.5
Loose	LV vs LAC 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form	-3	63–21	W	O36
Loose	ATL vs MIN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	28–31	L	O37.5
Loose	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-3	23–19	W	O38
Loose	LAC vs KC 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	12–13	L	U35

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
TEN LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OU	1-1	50%	1-1
TEN UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–39.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
TEN	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 3–5 TEN TEN leads · 8 games since 2001 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+0.6▲ 0.1#13

TEN−1.5 →−2.1▼ 0.6#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

TEN

#12

Offense

◀ GB better

#25

#21

Defense

TEN better ▶

#12

+2.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−2.0 #32

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ GB faster

61 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #13	24.0 #24	GB
Yards / play	6.38 #4	3.79 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.10 #9	Even
Success rate	39% #23	40% #13	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #23	22.0 #19	Even
Yards / play	4.50 #26	5.89 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.18 #28	−0.01 #18	GB
Success rate	37% #24	45% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

GB scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	8.0	6.5	14.5	5.0	3.0	8.0
TEN allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	8.5	10.5	19.0

TEN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	7.0	6.5	13.5	3.5	0.0	3.5
GB allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	8.5	5.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.