Colts @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff84°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

0-1 · Power #21

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

0-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 26–25 GB

✗ IND (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3

CloseIND -2.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -3

0.5 → GB

CloseIND -2.5

0.5 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open47.5

▼ 6

Close41.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -3 · closed IND -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward GBmodel GB -5

model GB -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (43 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3

CloseIND -2.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point road favorite at GB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 16–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 2.1; 39.2 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Loose	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Loose	BAL @ NE 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	37–26	W	O45
Loose	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Loose	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Loose	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	14–22	L	U41
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Loose	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	30–26	W	O43
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Loose	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-2	6–23	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND W	1-0	100%	—	—
GB L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; GB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND O	1-0	100%	0-1
GB O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 47% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 4–3 GB IND leads · 7 games since 2000 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#23

GB+0.5 →+0.3▼ 0.2#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

IND

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

Even

#24

Defense

Even

#24

−1.0 #21

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+2.0 #6

43 plays #32

Pace

GB faster ▶

58 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #12	34.0 #30	IND
Yards / play	7.05 #3	5.54 #20	IND
EPA / play	+0.05 #14	+0.06 #21	IND
Success rate	43% #15	47% #23	IND

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #8	29.0 #25	GB
Yards / play	7.14 #1	5.49 #19	GB
EPA / play	+0.18 #5	+0.14 #26	GB
Success rate	42% #18	48% #26	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.