Browns @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff81°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

0-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-1 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

✓ CLE W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 20–24 JAX

✗ JAX (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseJAX -3.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -1.5

2 → JAX

CloseJAX -3.5

2 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -1.5 · closed JAX -3.5 · moved 2 toward JAXmodel JAX -3

model JAX -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (75 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseJAX -3.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 18–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 3.2; 39.8 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WSH vs NYG 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-4	30–29	L	O41
Loose	IND vs TEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4	17–24	L	U43.5
Loose	LV vs NE 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	21–17	W	U40.5
Loose	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Loose	TB vs LAR 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-3	16–13	P	U42.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	LV vs IND 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-4	20–25	L	O41.5
Loose	DEN vs IND 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-3	9–12	L	U42
Loose	ATL vs WSH 2023 · Week 6 · loose	-2.5	16–24	L	U41.5
Loose	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–27	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE L	0-1	0%	—	—
JAX W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE O	1-0	100%	0-1
JAX U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 5. 47% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
JAX	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 8–11 JAX JAX leads · 19 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 27 @ Cleveland Browns 31	CLE -2.5	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →+0.1▼ 1.0#16

JAX+0.2 →−0.2▼ 0.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CLE

Longer bar = better

JAX

#28

Offense

JAX better ▶

#21

#13

Defense

◀ CLE better

#18

−2.0 #26

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

−1.0 #22

70 plays #5

Pace

◀ CLE faster

50 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	CLE off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #23	20.0 #14	JAX
Yards / play	3.29 #31	6.15 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.27 #27	+0.02 #17	JAX
Success rate	26% #32	40% #11	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	JAX off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #24	33.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #16	4.42 #8	CLE
EPA / play	−0.15 #23	−0.11 #11	CLE
Success rate	40% #21	36% #6	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.