Bears @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

1-1 · Power #24

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

0-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -2.5

✓ IND W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–24 IND

✓ IND (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -1

CloseIND -2.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -1

1.5 → IND

CloseIND -2.5

1.5 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -1 · closed IND -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward INDmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -1

CloseIND -2.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IND won 21–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 2.6; 46.7 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	IND vs LV 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–20	L	O42.5
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	13–19	L	U46.5
Loose	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	16–17	L	U40
Loose	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Loose	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	42–34	W	O44
Loose	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Loose	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Loose	LV vs DEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	32–23	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
IND WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UU	0-2	0%	1-1
IND OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 44% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
IND	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 3–5 IND IND leads · 8 games since 2000 · IND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →−1.0▼ 0.7#21

IND−0.6 →−1.7▼ 1.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CHI

Longer bar = better

IND

#28

Offense

IND better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ CHI better

#22

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−1.5 #28

60 plays #17

Pace

◀ CHI faster

48 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	CHI off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #19	22.5 #21	Even
Yards / play	2.97 #32	5.59 #23	IND
EPA / play	−0.29 #31	+0.07 #27	Even
Success rate	35% #28	42% #17	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	IND off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #18	18.0 #7	CHI
Yards / play	6.68 #3	4.54 #5	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	−0.21 #5	CHI
Success rate	43% #18	36% #6	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

CHI scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.5	5.0	6.5	3.5	8.5	12.0
IND allowed	8.0	3.0	11.0	3.0	8.5	11.5

IND scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.5	0.0	3.5	4.5	10.5	15.0
CHI allowed	5.0	11.5	16.5	0.0	1.5	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.