Titans @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Mon, Sep 30, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

0-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

1-2 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ TEN W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 21–24 MIA

✗ MIA (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -0.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEN -0.5

3 → MIA

CloseMIA -2.5

3 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open36.5

▲ 1

Close37.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEN -0.5 · closed MIA -2.5 · moved 3 toward MIAmodel MIA -6.5

model MIA -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -0.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 31–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 43 points went over 37.5, as in 4 of 9.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 2.9; 41.1 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Loose	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	17–27	L	O42
Loose	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	LV vs NYG 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	NYJ vs WSH 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-3	30–28	L	O36
Loose	CHI vs DET 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	24–14	W	U41.5
Loose	JAX vs CAR 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	26–0	W	U38
Loose	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
MIA LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
MIA UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
MIA	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 8–8 MIA Series tied · 16 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 11 2023	Tennessee Titans 28 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -13.5	TEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−3.0▼ 1.5#30

MIA+1.5 →+0.1▼ 1.4#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TEN

Longer bar = better

MIA

#28

Offense

Even

#27

#14

Defense

◀ TEN better

#21

−2.3 #32

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

0.0 #19

58 plays #25

Pace

MIA faster ▶

65 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	TEN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #27	24.0 #22	MIA
Yards / play	4.49 #28	5.70 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.24 #32	+0.01 #21	MIA
Success rate	39% #26	43% #17	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	MIA off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	11.0 #32	26.0 #26	TEN
Yards / play	4.88 #23	4.71 #5	TEN
EPA / play	−0.22 #31	−0.02 #17	TEN
Success rate	40% #23	40% #8	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	7.0 #7	4.3 #26	11.3 #16	4.7 #16	0.0 #32	4.7 #30
MIA allowed	10.3 #32	9.0 #27	19.3 #31	2.3 #5	2.3 #3	4.7 #2

MIA scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.3 #24	3.3 #29	6.7 #30	2.3 #29	2.0 #29	4.3 #31
TEN allowed	5.7 #20	4.3 #8	10.0 #12	8.0 #32	8.0 #27	16.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.