Bills @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff66°F10 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

3-0 · Power #4

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

✓ BAL W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 23–25 BAL

✓ BAL (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -2.5

no move

CloseBAL -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -2.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -0.5

model BUF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (84 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like BAL as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 35–10; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 3; 41 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	24–7	W	U49.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	14–37	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
BAL LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
BAL OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
BAL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 7–7 BAL Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+4.4▲ 2.1#1

BAL+3.1 →+3.2▲ 0.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BUF

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ BUF better

#20

+1.7 #1

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

+0.3 #10

54 plays #29

Pace

BAL faster ▶

66 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #1	26.0 #27	BUF
Yards / play	6.06 #6	5.69 #24	BUF
EPA / play	+0.31 #1	+0.01 #18	BUF
Success rate	51% #2	40% #10	BUF

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #12	16.0 #7	BUF
Yards / play	6.55 #1	4.24 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #3	−0.16 #5	Even
Success rate	50% #4	40% #9	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.7 #9	16.0 #1	22.7 #1	8.0 #1	6.7 #10	14.7 #2
BAL allowed	3.3 #10	5.0 #9	8.3 #7	4.7 #14	13.0 #32	17.7 #32

BAL scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #6	5.3 #19	13.3 #11	4.7 #15	5.7 #15	10.3 #16
BUF allowed	4.7 #16	5.3 #12	10.0 #12	2.3 #5	3.7 #9	6.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.