Jaguars vs Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sun, Oct 8, 2023, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 5 · Neutral site

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Jacksonville Jaguars

2-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo Bills

3-1 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

JAX 20–33 BUF

✗ BUF (87%) lost

Loading the recap…

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
JAX ––––	0-0	—	—	—
BUF –WW–	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: JAX neutral; BUF neutral. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX ––––	0-0	—	2-2
BUF ––––	0-0	—	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAXlast 4	2-2 50%	0-0 —	0-0 —
BUFlast 4	3-1 75%	2-0 100%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 8–10 BUF BUF leads · 18 games since 2001 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+1.7▼ 2.2#13

BUF−1.0 →+12.1▲ 13.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

JAX

Longer bar = better

BUF

#18

Offense

BUF better ▶

#16

Defense

Even

#15

+0.8 #8

Turnovers

Even

+1.2 #5

70 plays #5

Pace

◀ JAX faster

63 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #20	16.0 #6	BUF
Yards / play	5.15 #16	5.75 #27	JAX
EPA / play	−0.09 #19	−0.12 #6	BUF
Success rate	44% #16	44% #19	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #2	20.4 #12	BUF
Yards / play	6.16 #4	5.73 #26	BUF
EPA / play	+0.21 #3	−0.04 #13	BUF
Success rate	53% #2	42% #12	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.5 #18	5.8 #19	9.3 #20	3.3 #22	7.5 #10	10.8 #15
BUF allowed	3.5 #15	3.3 #1	6.8 #3	2.3 #6	3.3 #4	5.5 #4

BUF scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	8.5 #2	11.8 #4	20.3 #3	4.3 #14	10.3 #1	14.5 #5
JAX allowed	1.8 #4	6.0 #10	7.8 #6	8.8 #31	4.0 #9	12.8 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.