Colts @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 23Wet0.1 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-2 · Power #21

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-4 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

✓ IND W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 22–25 JAX

✓ JAX (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -3

CloseJAX -3.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -3

0.5 → JAX

CloseJAX -3.5

0.5 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -3 · closed JAX -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward JAXmodel JAX -1

model JAX -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (90 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -3

CloseJAX -3.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 37–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 2.8; 42.2 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	DEN vs GB 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	13–19	L	U46.5
Loose	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Loose	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–27	L	O42
Loose	LAR vs DAL 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5	10–22	L	U41.5
Loose	LV vs DEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-3	32–23	W	O45.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	SEA vs ATL 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	23–27	L	O43.5
Loose	TEN vs IND 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	25–16	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWW	3-1	75%	0-1	2-0
JAX WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
JAX UUOU	1-3	25%	0-4

Went over in Q4. Of 67 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
JAX	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IND 27–22 JAX IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2023	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	JAX W
Sep 10 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 31 @ Indianapolis Colts 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.4▼ 0.8#24

JAX+0.2 →−2.3▼ 2.5#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

IND

Longer bar = better

JAX

#15

Offense

◀ IND better

#24

#16

Defense

◀ IND better

#27

0.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.5 #25

54 plays #32

Pace

JAX faster ▶

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #17	27.3 #30	IND
Yards / play	6.10 #5	5.89 #29	IND
EPA / play	−0.03 #20	+0.16 #30	IND
Success rate	40% #19	44% #20	Even

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #29	21.3 #13	IND
Yards / play	4.94 #22	5.42 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #24	−0.04 #15	IND
Success rate	40% #21	41% #15	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.3 #12	2.5 #31	7.8 #25	4.0 #22	9.5 #1	13.5 #4
JAX allowed	6.8 #26	11.0 #31	17.8 #31	3.3 #6	6.3 #21	9.5 #15

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.3 #17	4.8 #25	9.0 #21	5.3 #13	0.8 #32	6.0 #28
IND allowed	4.0 #11	2.3 #1	6.3 #3	4.0 #11	11.0 #32	15.0 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.