Raiders @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-2 · Power #27

final

Final

Denver Broncos

2-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

✓ DEN W

Total

35.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 20–22 DEN

✓ DEN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseDEN -2.5

Total37.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -1.5

1 → DEN

CloseDEN -2.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open37.5

▼ 2

Close35.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -1.5 · closed DEN -2.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel DEN -2.5 matches the line

model DEN -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (91 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseDEN -2.5

Total37.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 34–18; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 35.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3; 36.7 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Loose	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-3	16–24	L	O37
Loose	LV vs DEN 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-3	27–14	W	O37.5
Loose	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	14–19	L	U34
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	13–16	L	U35.5
Loose	TB vs CAR 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–18	L	O37
Loose	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Loose	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Loose	CHI vs CAR 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	16–13	L	U38
Loose	NYG vs DAL 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	16–23	L	O38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
DEN W–WW	3-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2
DEN O–UU	1-2	33%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 19 earlier overs in games with totals 32.5–38.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%
DEN	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LV 23–31 DEN DEN leads · 54 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Denver Broncos 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27	LV -3	LV W
Sep 10 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−2.5▼ 1.7#29

DEN−1.0 →−0.3▲ 0.7#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

DEN

#22

Offense

◀ LV better

#29

#22

Defense

DEN better ▶

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

−0.5 #26

58 plays #25

Pace

DEN faster ▶

61 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LV off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #20	13.8 #3	DEN
Yards / play	4.96 #20	4.20 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.19 #27	−0.22 #1	DEN
Success rate	40% #22	36% #1	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	DEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #28	24.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #29	5.64 #24	LV
EPA / play	−0.19 #28	+0.01 #20	LV
Success rate	36% #31	43% #18	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.5 #21	4.0 #27	7.5 #27	4.3 #18	7.8 #5	12.0 #11
DEN allowed	2.5 #3	5.5 #12	8.0 #5	3.3 #7	2.5 #2	5.8 #3

DEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.3 #19	4.0 #27	8.3 #23	1.8 #30	5.5 #16	7.3 #28
LV allowed	5.8 #21	5.8 #13	11.5 #18	4.0 #11	8.8 #29	12.8 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.