Sun, Sep 10, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Denver Broncos · Division game
Closing spread
DEN -3.5
✓ LV W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
LV 25–28 DEN
✗ DEN (61%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseDEN -3.5
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseDEN -3.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close44.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseDEN -3.5
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
DEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: LV won 17–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 46%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3.3; 43.3 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  BAL vs  MIA2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 38–42 | L | O43.5 |
| Very close |  NE vs MIA2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 16–17 | L | U43.5 |
| Very close |  IND vs  TEN2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-4 | 17–24 | L | U43.5 |
| Very close | TEN vs IND 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3 | 19–10 | W | U43 |
| Very close |  PIT vs  HOU2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-4 | 28–21 | W | O46 |
| Very close | MIA vs NE 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3 | 20–7 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |  SEA vs  NYG2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 27–13 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |  LV vs DEN2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 32–23 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close | NE vs  SF2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 6–33 | L | U45 |
| Very close |  JAX vs NYG2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 17–23 | L | U43.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Las Vegas Raiders have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
DEN +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
70° · 7 mph
gusts 22 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LV1st game
DEN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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