Sun, Sep 10, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Washington Commanders
Closing spread
WSH -6
✓ ARI W
Total
40
▼ Under · 36 pts
Model before kickoff
ARI 24–30 WSH
✓ WSH (69%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseWSH -6
Total40
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseWSH -6
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close40
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseWSH -6
Total40
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WSH as a 6-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: WSH won 20–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 40, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
3 of 838%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 6.1; 39.6 points a game (usually 47.3). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  PIT vs  DEN2020 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-6.5 | 26–21 | L | O41 |
| Very close |  JAX vs  TEN2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total |
-6 | 20–16 | L | U40 |
| Very close |  LAR vs  DAL2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-5 | 10–22 | L | U41.5 |
| Very close |  NYG vs  IND2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total |
-5.5 | 38–10 | W | O38.5 |
| Very close |  ATL vs  ARI2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 20–19 | L | U40.5 |
| Very close |  LAC vs LAR2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total |
-6.5 | 31–10 | W | P41 |
| Very close |  BUF vs  NYJ2020 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-6.5 | 27–17 | W | O38.5 |
| Very close |  MIA vs NYG2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 20–9 | W | U39.5 |
| Very close | PIT vs  SEA2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 23–20 | L | P43 |
| Very close |  CLE vs  CIN2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.5 | 21–16 | L | U38 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Arizona Cardinals ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Arizona Cardinals on a cross-country trip
Arizona Cardinals cross 3 time zones (1,995 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Arizona Cardinals have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WSH +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 1 mph
gusts 11 mph · 0.024 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
ARI1st game
WSH1st game
Even
Travel
ARI 1,995 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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DET @ 
KC
CAR @ 
TB @ 
MIN
NO