Browns @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

1-3 · Power #28

final

Final

Washington Commanders

3-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 22–25 WSH

✓ WSH (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -3.5

no move

CloseWSH -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -3.5 · unchangedmodel WSH -3

model WSH -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 3.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 4.1; 44.7 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	BUF vs JAX 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-4.5	47–10	W	O46.5
Loose	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Loose	MIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	36–28	W	O45
Loose	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	CAR vs WSH 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	21–27	L	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-0
WSH LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
WSH OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 65 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WSH	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 3–4 WSH WSH leads · 7 games since 2004 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−1.2▼ 2.3#21

WSH−3.1 →−1.2▲ 1.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CLE

Longer bar = better

WSH

#30

Offense

WSH better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ CLE better

#29

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.3 #11

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ CLE faster

62 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #27	25.5 #25	Even
Yards / play	3.86 #32	6.21 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.19 #29	+0.17 #31	Even
Success rate	35% #32	50% #30	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #3	21.8 #15	WSH
Yards / play	6.14 #4	5.00 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.30 #1	−0.06 #13	WSH
Success rate	53% #1	40% #11	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	6.8 #7	1.5 #32	8.3 #22	2.5 #26	5.8 #14	8.3 #25
WSH allowed	6.5 #25	5.5 #12	12.0 #17	5.3 #18	8.3 #29	13.5 #28

WSH scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.3 #17	9.3 #5	13.5 #11	7.5 #3	9.3 #2	16.8 #1
CLE allowed	3.5 #9	10.0 #29	13.5 #26	6.8 #27	1.5 #1	8.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.